The Mpemba Effect is an example of a counterintuitive truth. Very simply, it states that under certain conditions boiling water can freeze faster than water at room temperature. At first blush, it doesn’t seem to make sense.  But boiling water does freeze faster. And that makes the Mpemba Effect an important reminder that some things that seem to intuitively make sense, do not. They are counterintuitive.

In business, there are a number of examples to point to, the AOL-Time Warner merger being among the more glaring cases.  What intuitively seemed to be the perfect marriage in the minds of the principals turned out to be just the opposite. The merger did not take into account AOL’s modem-based connectivity, global regulatory issues, the rise of Apple, the advent of Amazon and Netflix, and other pure Internet content players.  Most important, it did not consider the cultural differences between a traditional media company and the upstart Internet access player that was AOL. What was billed a “transformative” event was not. The marriage was not strong enough to withstand the dot-com crash, 9-11, or a flawed business model that encountered many of the same basic issues that burdened Yahoo, Lycos, MSN and others.

The healthcare information technology industry has been no exception to the counterintuitive trap. Over the last 25 years we have seen HIT acquisitions by everything from telephone companies, mega financial organizations, benefits management companies, and yes, technology companies, to name a few. Each saw the large percentage of the GDP represented by healthcare. Each believing that their core business was an “intuitive” fit with healthcare. And, to a company, each pledged to “transform healthcare”. Yet most, if not all, did not understand or appreciate the unique “clinical care” culture and business environment of healthcare. They did their due diligence on the company they were to acquire.  But not on the industry they were entering. Nor did they have the humility to listen to the healthcare companies they bought or merged with. Rather, they forged ahead in their arrogance only to fall victim to the Mpemda Effect. Alas, healthcare is far more than a transactional business.  Relationships among and between providers, payers, and third-parties were much like a bowl of spaghetti. There is no quick buck to be made here. Most exited quickly. Others eventually got fed up and followed. None transformed much of anything.

So what does the Mpemba Effect teach us? Confirm what you think to be intuitively true. Because it may not be. It’s not enough to be driven by what you think should be true or what you expect to happen. As in medicine, let proven facts and demonstrable evidence show you the way.  Do the homework. Perform the research. Consider the intangibles. But be prepared.  You may find that the truth is counterintuitive.